Free Download , by William J. Baumol
Free Download , by William J. Baumol
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, by William J. Baumol
Free Download , by William J. Baumol
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Product details
File Size: 2026 KB
Print Length: 272 pages
Publisher: Yale University Press (September 25, 2012)
Publication Date: September 25, 2012
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B009B5STCG
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Professor and well-known economist William J. Baumol and his co-authors deliver a clear, concise, and informative analysis concerning the fast rising prices of health care and education in the U.S. and other nations. In his careful examination, the author reveals underlying causes related to the nature of providing labor-intensive services, and why the increasing cost of health care and college tuition fees is a major cause of concern. After Baumol explores these ongoing problems, he offers simple explanations as to why this disease affects the economy. In addition, he explains that the more we understand the disease, the more effective responses become apparent, and presents information on predictions of how long we may be able to afford the increasing cost of good education and decent health care. Furthermore, the author explains how productivity trends have profound implications for how society deals with the increasing cost. In conclusion, Baumol offers good news as he reassures us that society will be able to afford the rising costs. The economical facts and information revealed is delivered in simple logic, the storytelling is good, and the analysis is easy-to-read. Thought-provoking questions and answers are also included in predictions for the future. Illuminating, Interesting, Educational, and Highly Recommended!
This book is embarrassingly bad, yet it had the potential to be a vital and necessary reference for policy makers, particularly in health care and education (it almost exclusively addresses health care). It needs a total rework on Chapter 4, which is the heart of the book. There, it dumps in its own hat, and then dons it. Let me explain.For years, I have been advising school boards and administrations about Baumol's "Cost Disease". Those labor-intensive institutions, with few means of productivity improvement, will have costs that inevitably outstrip growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This happens because they have to offer compensation that matches growth in the more productive sectors (such as manufacturing). Otherwise, we will lose workers in vital low-productivity growth sectors such as education, health care, the criminal justice system at all stages of the process, and more. This is Baumol's thesis, and he should be the best to expound it. However, he fails to pursue its consequences in a manner that survives careful examination, with the character of the projections he makes. This is sad, because those arguments could have been made effectively.Consider that many school districts are restrained by "tax caps", where revenue growth without a referendum is limited to CPI growth. They have an inevitable collision with that. In manufacturing, however, workers can be given compensation increases above the CPI increase, because of the productivity from capital investment, technology, training, better methods, and more. This Baumol describes as the difference between the "stagnant" and the "progressive" sectors, with a "hybrid" sector in between. Some of the "stagnant", personal service industries die off (doctors do not make house calls anymore, there are no milkmen, and there are butlers and cooks only on Downton Abbey). Others will never vanish, because they are necessary to society: Health Care, Education, Criminal Justice, and more. Even barbers and hairdressers must survive.So I needed a book I could give to schools, and one from the original source would be excellent. This book fails miserably. It is not an academic book by any means (nor should it be, but at times it tries, schizophrenically). It attempts to be a popularization of economic thought, and guru on policy advice, but it does not succeed. Instead, it is a mishmash of different authors and of styles (even within Baumol's own chapters, where he ranges from the academic, to attempts at a breezy style). He fails in the key Chapter 4, "Yes, We Can Afford It". I will have more on that later.As another reviewer remarked, some of the graphs are poorly rendered, making them almost useless. The XY Charts use data markers that are so small that they are indistinguishable among the multiple data sets. That could have easily been fixed with distinctive line styles (still not requiring color printing), but then the book is poorly edited overall. The most significant editing problem is for coherent content on the modeling in Chapter 4, which would get an MBA student flunked. Even Baumol, in his extremely lengthy Endnote 13 to that chapter, knows that something is wrong. His own colleagues must have warned him. One has to go to the endnotes to ferret out the details, on this pivotal chapter.He assumes that health care costs, as a percent of GDP, will continue to grow at a compounding rate of 1.41% per year, with no leveling off, ever. Reviewer Gaetan Lion points out that such an assumption will eventually exceed 100% of the economy. Baumol seems to recognize that in Endnote 14, and then blithely ignores it. In fact, in his lengthy Endnote 13, he says he is not doing a "forecast", but a "projection". That seems to be a distinction without a difference, unless "projection" now means "meaningless extrapolation for 100 years, without any underpinnings and logic, leading to an impossibility." Yet he refers to his own use of logic in the endnote. Redo your homework, sir.Health care in his projection ends up constituting 62% of the economy in one hundred years. As other reviewers have pointed out, this crowds out even the other "stagnant" industries, such as education and criminal justice. We're still going to need barbers and hairdressers also. It has reduced the "progressive" sector to only 38%. Yet this is what is supposed to be paying for everything, so his 2.13% real productivity growth rate across the economy is unsustainable, and its contribution is being steadily eroded. No one seems to have pointed that out -- he has some means to pay for things, but not the amount he assumes, and it would be shrinking every year. This is what results when someone does a back-of-the-envelope calculation, without actually trying to flesh it out in a moderately detailed spreadsheet, where the absurdities and inconsistencies would become apparent.With regard to some of these considerations, he remarks that a "nonlinear" model would probably not materially change the "linear" model he uses. All I can figure out is that he is rejecting a model that would have certain things grow to some asymptotic limits, such as an "S Curve", or "Logistic Curve". Yes--that is exactly what would make his projections plausible, and perhaps help him make his point - that we will be able to afford all this in some way. I agree with him that no one can fine-tune such predictions. So run half a dozen different plausible scenarios, which actually might make some sense, demonstrate the range of possibilities, and show how things might still work under a variety of circumstances.As a final critique, I will note that some things noted as "Cost Disease" are actually "Mission Creeps/Mission Enhancements". On page 21, he refers to negative productivity in education (not just stagnation), referring to changing student/teacher ratios in recent years. Much of that was due to Federal and State mandates re Special Ed, and increasing classification of children as Special Ed, where class sizes are often only half as large. Likewise, other reviewers have pointed out that compensation of doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals does not explain much of health care expense growth. Stats from the Dept of Education and Dept of Labor show that Baumol's Cost Disease per se only accounted for less than a third of the slippage above the CPI over a twelve-year period in Cost per Student. The rest was Mission Creep (think Special Ed, Technology, Security...), or possibly waste. This book attempts to address a significant set of issues, but does so superficially.This book requires such a major rework that I think the author will not bother. Yale University Press did a poor vetting of its content, perhaps based on the distinguished past of its chief author. It cannot be used for giving to policy makers, since it can be easily attacked for its absurdities. That need not have been the case, since a proper exposition could have solidly made many of his points, and those are important ones.
I bought this book as it was touted by David Brooks, the op-ed columnist for the New York Times and a thinker and writer that I greatly admire. The books basic proposition is that the 21st century will be marked with rising prices for personal services offerings which are not easy to cost reduce but will be offset by declining prices for tangible goods with the supposed offsetting result that services like healthcare and education, while getting increasingly expensive, will be affordable by all but the very poor. The latter will require some sort of government or private support. Co-written by several colleagues who take responsibility for certain chapters, the book offers examples of how services industries will grow increasingly expensive but will ultimately be affordable. The book ignores critical inputs like alternative growth/no-growth scenarios, the effect of declining wages on the middle class, and comes across s overly simplistic. Beyond the key notion that we are in a different economy where productivity gains impact tangible vs services based economies in a different fashion, the book does not have a great to offer. Worth a fast read but the insights I expected as a consequence of Brook's recommendation are just not here.
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